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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Spending time in the critical presidential election state of Florida this week, I thought a lot about what Florida and other states did during the 2018 midterm elections, that might give us some hints as to what will happen in those key states in 2020.NICO | Women's Pointy Toe Elasticized Leather or Suede Ballet Flat (New Spring) B0778V96FH 6.5 M US|Blush Light Pebbled Leather Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“A Florida Frost?” – Salomon Women's Speedcross 4 Wide W Trail Running Shoe B073K2R5GM 10.5 W US|Poseidon Senate seat long held by former Sen. Bill Nelson (D) Florida. Florida is always so close I’d rate it a toss-up, but I say a slight advantage for Trump in 2020.

“Penn Station Stall” – Right now I would rate Pennsylvania as the best and biggest chance for a Democrat pick up in the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump won the Keystone State in 2016 with 48.2 percent of the vote to 47.5 percent for Hillary Clinton. FRYE Women's Leslie Artisan Short Boot B01BLZ58O0 7 B(M) US|SmokeThe raw margin of victory was just 44,000 votes. New Balance Women's 669v1 Walking Shoe B0751SXTY8 6 D US|Grey/Rose Gold. I predict Pennsylvania leans strongly to go back into the Democrat’s fold in 2020, and if native son Joe Biden is the nominee, he’ll carry the state over Trump in November.

“Ohio High-Low” – Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes went to Donald Trump in 2016. It’s a state that is the best predictor of all fifty states. Win Ohio and you’re president. The 2018 election produced mixed results. Call it the status quo election. Sen.Diadora Men's B. Elite Court Shoe B01CQUYQLK 10.5 D(M) US|White/ Blue Denim/ Blue Denim Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio easily won reelection. On the other hand, Attorney General Mike DeWine (R) Ohio was elected governor, replacing term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) Ohio. Democrats and Republicans both kept their incumbent seats in the U.S. House and so that balance stays the same. I rate Ohio as clear advantage for Republicans in 2020.

“Badgering Voters” – Skechers Performance Women's Go Walk 4 Lace-up Walking Shoe B01IIZAS0U 7 B(M) US|Navy/White Heather. Scott Walker (R) Wisconsin, was defeated in a very close race as he sought a third term. But none of Wisconsin’s U.S. House district flipped, so I say Wisconsin leans to Trump in 2020

“Carolina (North) on My Mind” – North Carolina has become a key toss-up state in past few presidential election cycles, after being a solid red state for decades. But 2018 offered some mixed results. Democrats won the governor’s race beating a Republican incumbent. On the other hand, Ros Hommerson Women's Teddi Low Heel Synthetic, Leather Casual Pumps B012XYFXZW 8 B(M) US|Black MicrotouchDemocrats and Republicans each held their incumbent U.S. House seats, with one exception. The ninth district seat remains in a toss-up with a special election set for September 2019, which will get huge national press attention and money. Many will view it as a final litmus test on Trump’s viability in North Carolina and nationally in 2020. Right now, I give the GOP a slight advantage to hold North Carolina, but remember Trump only beat Hillary Clinton here by three percentage points.

“Virginia is NOT for All Lovers!” –The sea of “red” hearts in Virginia has indeed turned “blue.” Between 1952 and 2004, AMAWEI Water Shoes for Boys Girls Kids Quick Dry Beach Swim Sports Aqua Shoes for Pool Surfing Walking B07C2M29JG 4 M US Big Kids|Lake Blue, and in 2018 came within one vote of tying Republicans for control of the House of Delegates, and within one vote of controlling the State Senate. Look for Virginia to stay in the “blue” column in 2020.

“’Auto State’ is Not Automatic” – Heavily involved in the auto industry, Michigan has been a reliable blue-collar Democratic state for decades, but often with a penchant for electing Republican governors. This was the closest margin of victory in any state for Donald Trump as he garnered 47.5 percent of the vote,Earth Origins Women's Sophie Sandals B018QTUSEY 8N|Sedona BrownNine West Women's Girlsnite Synthetic Ballet Flat B01BSLYP5K 6 B(M) US|White/Navy to 47.27 percent for Hillary Clinton. The difference was just 10,704 votes out of 4.5 million votes cast. Democrats kept a U.S. Senate seat, picked up the Governor’s mansion and flipped two U.S. House seats. I rate the state as leaning to flip back to the Democratic side in 2020.

“Why All of This Matters” – Reebok Women's Print Smooth Clip Ultk Track Shoe B01MZ6HUPL 8.5 B(M) US|Lilac Shadow/Fresh Blue/Electric Flash/White/Smoky Indigo, North Carolina, Ohio, or Georgia. It’s going to be an uphill fight!.

Who is ahead in your state? Who are people chatting about? Just click the comment button to add your voice to the chorus!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is the Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations that are providing coverage of the 2020 presidential campaign in West Virginia, its five neighboring states of Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and most of the Washington, D.C. media market.

© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo courtesy: Getty Images

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FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – This week I am in the crucial “Sunshine State” which will play a critical role in who wins the White House in 2020. For months I have predicted that House Democrats would begin impeachment proceedings against President Trump whether there was merit or not. I think the momentum is now gaining in that direction and has lots of implications. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

“Mueller Moves On” – Gentle Souls by Kenneth Cole Women's Lori Platform Sandal B01L9M1EE8 6.5 M US|Black. That means impeachment is the option available to Congress.

“Good Cop – Bad Cop” – While many rank and file Democrats have called for impeachment of the president in recent weeks, Converse El Distrito Canvas Low Top Sneaker B07CQ9Y35B 3 M US|Teak/White/Black, so she may be trying to be the “good cop” here. But I predict if the majority of her caucus serves up the “bad cop” role, she’ll allow impeachment inquiries to move forward.

“The Math Doesn’t Add Up” – Right now Democrats control the U.S House with 235 seats, Haflinger Women's Cr Future Chocolate Flat B01FDF77ZM 37 M EU / 6 B(M) US|Chocolate. Even in 1999, Republicans had a 55-45 majority in the Senate, but needed 12 Democrats to expel Clinton. They got zero Democrats to join them.

“Impeach me, Please!” – Speaker Pelosi has warned Democrats that she believes Trump actually wants his foes to launch an impeachment. Pelosi told her caucus that President Trump “wants to be impeached” so that he can be cleared by the Senate. I think she’s right on the money. I mean, just look how the Mueller investigation emboldened Trump supporters and made them even more passionate in their backing. Trump seems to be inviting his own “Trojan Horse” to the impeachment process. Fascinating!

“The Potential ‘Coattail’ Fallout” – I think there is an interesting dynamic to watch here that concerns the timing of everything. In January 1998, Republicans launched their investigation of President Clinton over his involvement with Paula Jones and Monica Lewinsky.Comfity Women's Rivets Studded Shoes Metal Buckle Low Heels Ankle Boots B06XNN136V 36 (M) EU|Beige It was also the beginning of the 1998 midterm Congressional election cycle. If the Trump impeachment process starts now and goes a year, we may have resolution well before the 2020 presidential election (and Congressional elections, too). In 1998, Democrats won a net gain of five seats in the House, plus Newt Gingrich was ousted as Speaker. Forsake Duck - Women's Waterproof Leather Performance Sneakerboot B073X6B3YD 10 M US|Black/CypressIt was a clear sign Republicans overplayed their hands on impeachment. But there was no change in the Senate’s 55-45 GOP majority.

“Home Party Rules” – Remember that impeachment is a political process, it’s not a legal process like the criminal courts. Party loyalty can play a huge factor in a political process. For example, in 1999 only five House Democrats voted to impeach President Clinton, but in the Senate no Democrats voted to remove him from office.The North Face Womens Ballard Round Toe Ankle Fashion Boots B0195KJ3XK 5.5 B(M) US|Dachshund Brown/Deep Garnet Red (Prior Season) Circus by Sam Edelman Women's Caley Ballet Flat B01LYOVB6S 6 B(M) US|Golden CaramelOn the other hand, go back to the 1974 impeachment proceedings against President Nixon. Seven Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted to file three articles of impeachment against Nixon. After that, a group of Republican lawmakers visited the White House and told Nixon he could not survive and would be removed from office if he did not resign.Vince Camuto Women's Carran Slide Sandal B075FR2XWM 8.5 B(M) US|Summer CognacBella Vita Women's Nara Dress Pump B01ED2SYAI 6 E US|Black Kid SuedeTwo days later he quit. My point is, when your own party says it is time to close the curtain, then you are done. It really makes little difference what the opposing party says.

“Unity and Division” – The only other example we can study on impeachment is that of President Andrew Johnson, who succeeded President Lincoln after his assassination. Lincoln, a Republican, chose a Southern Democrat in Johnson of Tennessee, Trotters Women's Lucy Ballet Flat B01HMY8ERM 6.5 XW US|BoneLoeffler Randall Women's Isabel-Sh Slide Sandal B0736P9P15 10 B(M) US|Peonyfor what was dubbed a National Unity Ticket. When Johnson replaced Lincoln, many Republicans did not trust him or want him. As mentioned earlier, impeachment is a political process, New Balance Women's W1540V2 Running Shoe B00IZC6QYO 6 2E US|Silver/Greennot a legal proceeding. Johnson was impeached on three articles, and in all three cases he survived removal from office by only one vote in the Senate. Interestingly, after Johnson left the presidency, he ran for U.S. Senate and won!

“Why All This Matters” – When it comes to impeachment, Congress has to tread carefully. In Richard Nixon’s case, the evidence was overwhelming and enough people in both parties were ready to remove him from office. In Bill Clinton’s case, it was clear he committed perjury by lying under oath to a U.S. District Judge. Women's New Dev-9 Round Toe Ballet Flats Ballerina Runs Small Consider Going One Size Up B01N42BEKJ Small / 7 B(M) US|Silver PuOf course, the lie was about an extramarital affair, and as reprehensible as many in both parties found Clinton’s behavior, many just didn’t feel it warranted removal from office. In Andrew Johnson’s case, he may have violated laws Congress specifically passed to bait him. But again,NIKE Mens Zoom Winflo 3 Fitsole Cushlon Running Shoes B019DG09G6 9.5 D(M) US|Dark Grey/Volt/Racer Blue/White Pleaser Women's Delight-609/FSM/M Platform Sandal B006FYMK44 10 B(M) US|Fuchsia Metallic/Fuchsiait was more of a political offense. My guess is that until House Democrats find clear violations of the law or breeches of national security, the Trump impeachment is going nowhere.

Do you favor or oppose impeachment of President Trump? Please click the comment button to place your vote and explain your position!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia and its five surrounding states, plus most of the Washington, D.C. media market. He’s a National Contributing Writer for the White House Patch at www.Patch.com.

© 2019, Mark Curtis Media, LLC

Photo courtesy: Mark Curtis Media, LLC

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